Wednesday, February 23rd, 2011
WHAT DO YOU LIVE FOR?
Here is a commercial that hopefully will inspire all of you.
For questions or comments, please e-mail me at John@HellerCompany.com
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Wednesday, February 2nd, 2011
IT HAPPENED ON JANUARY 24th AROUND 2:30 IN THE AFTERNOON
Every year, I meet with a friend in December and we predict what day the ‘January effect’ will take place in our local real estate market. This is the day when there is an unusual spike in sales, primarily because of renewed optimism for a new year and the natural rebound from the typical slow Q4 months of Oct./Nov./Dec.
For the past 34 years, the floodgates open around January 12th. My prediction this year was for January 10th. (By the way, if you are looking to buy a house, the best day of the year to submit an offer is December 23rd. Sellers just want to get out by then).
However, this year was different. For the first time I can remember, December sales were unusually strong and I wondered if there would even be a January effect. But sales continued to build through January, and from my perspective, they peaked on Monday, January 24th. However, it’s been wild and crazy since.
In the last 7 days on the Eastside, there have been 242 pending sales and 115 closed sales, for a total of 357 homes that have gone off the market or changed hands. In the same period there have been only 222 new listings come on the market. Inventory (at least for this week) is shrinking.
In West Bellevue alone in the past week, there have been 10 properties over $2M that went pending. (One was a vacant lot on the tip of Hunts Point that was listed for $19.68M). The average time on the market for these 10 properties has been 425 days.
Home sales under $500K in the past week have been off the charts, with 112 properties going under contract. In the past 7 days, there have been 54 homes under $500K that have closed, and the percentage of closing price to list price has been an astounding 98%. (This is in stark contrast to the percentage of closing price to original list price for homes on the Eastside over $2M that closed in the past 6 months. The average here was a dismal 71.5%).
The January effect started on January 24th this year and has remained strong through February 2nd. We’ll see just how long it will last.
If you have any questions or comments on this article, or, if I can assist in any way with your real estate needs, please feel free to contact me at john@hellercompany.com.
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Thursday, December 16th, 2010
THE QR CODEWhat is a QR Code? It’s one of the latest new ideas in real estate marketing. I predict this two-dimensional ‘tag’ will soon be appearing on real estate signs so that potential buyers, when driving by a house for sale, can simply use their smart phone to take a picture of the code, which then converts into a message that can be instantly read and then stored on the phone for later reference. No paper flyers and instant information retention. Very cool.
You can easily generate your own QR Code on-line with a variety of QR Code generators and the app is easily downloaded to your mobile device.
If you want to learn more, here’s a link to the Wikipedia definition: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/QR_Code and if you want to have some fun and easily create your own QR Code for something, give it a whirl on this link: http://www.qurify.com/en/
If you have any questions or comments on this article, or, if I can assist in any way with your real estate needs, please feel free to contact me at john@hellercompany.com.
Wednesday, December 15th, 2010
IT’S STILL ABOUT TRUST.
Yesterday, I participated in a roundtable discussion with some pretty influential people in the real estate business. The meeting included a company owner, the head of an IT department, and some of the most respected real estate agents in our area. The purpose of the meeting was to talk about how we can optimize technology for the ultimate benefit of the client. I like these sort of meetings because it allows time to think creatively. We emerged from the meeting with a pretty cool idea that seemed relatively easy to implement and could be a great service to the client, which in the end adds value.
For me, the best question of the meeting was this: In the world of residential real estate and the colossal amount of information that consumers now have, ultimately, what do they do with it once they decide they want to pull the trigger and actually start the process of buying or selling?? The answer still remains: They align with someone they trust.
In the residential real estate field, trust still involves that special moment when a buyer or seller takes a personal risk and places their well being with a professional in hopes that the ultimate outcome of their transaction was worth the cost.
In my next blog, we’ll take an in-depth look at some of the actual and percieved costs, benefits, and options available in this ever-changing world of residential real estate, because in the end, every real estate company and agent is trying to validate their services in exchange for one ultimate reward….your trust.
If you have any comments or questions regarding this article, or if I can assist you in any way, please contact me at John@HellerCompany.com
HAPPY HOLIDAYS!
Friday, December 3rd, 2010
HAVE CERTAIN SECTORS OF THE LOCAL MARKET BOTTOMED?
We continue to receive every conceivable story/opinion on the local and national real estate market from Case-Shiller Indexes, foreclosure data, pending/new home sales, National Association of Realtor data and more. I also have mine.
If you take a look at the hard data locally from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service (NWMLS), an interesting trend has started to develop, at least for the past 5 weeks on Seattle’s Eastside. Virtually every day, pending and actual sales have outstripped new listings coming on the market. In other words, inventory is stabilizing. For the last few years, this has been just the opposite. Day after day and month after month unsold inventory continued to build and prices continued to fall. This is especially encouraging during a typical slow time of year for sales.
From my experience, when the residential market begins to rebound, it usually starts at the entry level and works its way up to the higher priced luxury homes. ‘Conventional’ mortgage money, (which is still very difficult and frustrating to obtain due to stricter regulations and underwriting standards than in the past) is typically more available at the relatively lower price sectors because it is capped by FNMA underwriting guidelines. According to a recent report from Reuters, the Federal Housing Finance Agency maintained the heightened conforming loan maximum of $417,000 for single family homes and up to $729,750 in certain high cost areas. These loan maximums will stay at these levels for at least the first nine months of 2011.
For both close-in Seattle and the Eastside, there has been a flurry of sales in the under $500K price range with less new inventory coming on the market than sales. At least for now, this market seems to be stabilizing. The $64K question is this: What percentage of these successful sellers are ‘moving up’? I don’t have hard data on this particular question for our area, but it is an important element for any secular ‘bull market’ to take place in the residential real estate arena.
Vacancies remain at record levels. As of last week, a stunning 61% of homes for sale in the Seattle metro area under $500K (45% on the Eastside) were vacant, leading me to believe there is a smaller percentage of ‘move-ups’ than we have historically seen. Also, since a relatively high percentage of these properties are distressed, it is highly likely that many of these sellers are ‘retreating’ by moving down in price or simply renting.
I continue to see prices in the luxury market ($2.0M+) to remain flat and proportionally weaker all the way to the highest listed home in the area.
When this residential market begins to get some legs and unemployment figures start to decline, there will be an incredible pent-up demand for entry level homes since so many homeowners in this sector were displaced. Investing in these close-in homes now might be a very smart move.
It is truly good news to see a stabilizing market at these base levels. Regardless of price point, employing a savvy real estate professional to market your home and strategically navigate through the residential real estate hurdles is a smart move.
If you have any comments or questions regarding this article, or if I can assist you in any way, please contact me at john@hellercompany.com
HAPPY HOLIDAYS!
Friday, November 5th, 2010
WHERE IS EVERYONE?
VACANCY RATES REACH STUNNING LEVELS
VACANCY RATES REACH STUNNING LEVELS
Earlier this week I ran a search for Eastside single family homes for sale and I was taken aback by a particular finding. Of the 1759 single family homes on the Eastside for sale priced under $500K, a whopping 818 are vacant. This equals 45.5% of this particular inventory set. There are 1956 single family homes on the Eastside priced over $500K. A total of 656, or 33%, are vacant.
These are very surprising numbers. In the past, job transfers were the main catalyst for a resale home to be vacant while it was on the market. The Sellers accepted a job elsewhere and moved, leaving the home vacant. (Generally 1 or 2% of the total inventory).
Studies have shown that vacant homes do not fetch the same price as a furnished/staged homes, plus these homes are costly to maintain, especially when the weather turns wet and cold, thus leading to more downward pricing pressure. The good news is that just recently, total sales have outpaced new inventory coming on the market and buyers are scoring some very good bargains.
Contact me at John@HellerCompany.com if you have any questions or comments.
Monday, November 1st, 2010
COULD THIS BE A TREND?
Last week I observed something that I haven’t seen in years. For each of the 7 prior days, reported sold and pending sales of single family residential homes on the Eastside (263) outnumbered listings of single family homes coming on the market. (178) In other words, total pending and sales exceeded new market inventory. Here is a synopsis for the period:
- 161 Pending Sales (Homes under contract but not yet closed)
- Pending Average List Price = $556,989
- Pending Average Cumulative Days on Market = 138
- 102 Homes Closed (Title actually transferred)
- Average Sale Price was $640,540
- Average cumulative days on market before closing: 126
- % closed homes under $350K: 22%
- % closed homes $351K-$499K: 28 %
- % closed homes over $500K: 52%
- % of original listing price to final sale price: 90.4%
For the NEW LISTINGS in the same time period:
- Total # of new listings: 178
- Average list price: $607,278
- % of new listings under $350K: 45%
- % of new listings $351K-$499K: 28%
- % of new listings over $500K: 27%
- Average list price of all new listings: $607,278
I’m not making any predictions, but these statistics are very interesting and positive. If you have any questions or comments, please feel free to contact me at John@HellerCompany.com
Thursday, October 28th, 2010
UNDERSTANDING THE CURRENT FORECLOSURE MESS
If you have 37 minutes, I would highly encourage you to listen to the 10/27/2010 NPR interview with Gretchen Morganson, New York Times Financial Analyist and Writer on her take regarding the latest foreclosure issues. The interview is extremely informative and should help you to better undertand where we are today as we sift through the complexities of the nation’s foreclosure issues facing investors, banks, current and future property owners. After listening, please send me a note with any comments or questions to John@HellerCompany.com
Wednesday, September 29th, 2010
RIDING UP SEVEN MILE HILL
This past Sunday, I participated in the “Echelon Gran Fondo”, a charity bicycle race/ride in Hood River, Oregon. My wife and I were joined by two other couples along with about 750 other riders. We rode the 60 mile course, which took us along the scenic Columbia River then up the foothills with over a mile of vertical gain. (Click on the link below and then click the ’60 mile course’ and check out the topography profile to better get the point of today’s blog entry.
http://www.echelongranfondo.org/portland/portland_course.html
The weather was perfect for the 8:30 am start. The skies were slightly overcast and the temperature was a refreshing 55 degrees. All 750 riders were clumped together waiting for the starting gun to go off. It was a kaleidoscope of spandex. I was hoping I could cross the finish line in the next 5 hours.
As you can see from the course profile, from milepost 25 to 41, there are two incredibly steep hill climbs, some with grades over 15%, which, for any cyclist, is a very good challenge. Near the beginning of the climb I looked upward and noticed tiny ant-sized cyclists as they serpentined their way up the steeper grades several hundred feet above me. “Whoa”, was my first reaction….”I’ve got a long way to go.” So I did what most people would do in this situation….I kept my head down and put one pedal in front of the other. Midway through the first climb my rear tire went flat. I had a spare tube, but my ‘high- tech’ CO2 pump cartridge didn’t work. With the assistance from some other ‘angel’ riders, (“Bill, Ross, and Marcia”) my tire got pumped up and I was able to continue on. When I arrived at a designated rest stop between the two hills, I fueled up with a peanut butter and jelly sandwich and began the most grueling part of the ride which stretched for 5 miles and climbed around 1500’. Starting out, I took a quick glance upward for reference, said a quick prayer, and began pedaling. Without experiencing this course before, I had no idea when I would reach the top. Everything was fresh and new, which for me was a good thing. I just kept pedaling. The only sound I heard was the steady (and quite loud) rhythmic exhales that came across as a staccato-like “schuu” every 2 seconds. My legs and lungs ached, but I had just enough strength to barely keep the pedals turning.
Before I knew it, a young boy, walking to get his mail from the roadside mailbox looked at me and said, “You don’t have long to go.” Was I really near the top? Sure enough, around the next bend, and about the distance of a football field, there appeared to be a crest. When I arrived, the road sign said ‘Seven Mile Hill Summit. El. 1812’. I had made it to the top. Most of the ride from there was downhill and reflecting on this first-time experience, it was beautiful, gruesome and totally exhilarating.
I loved my ride, partly because it required some training. Plus, we had something exciting to look forward to with our friends. During the actual ride, I was able to soak up the beauty and spectacular views around me, even when the road was steep and grueling. I was thankful for good health. When crossing the finish line, people were clapping, high school cheerleaders were cheering, (really) and the animated announcer made some congratulatory remark over the loudspeaker. At the moment, all I could do was smile. There was no pain….just rejoicing.
I didn’t quite realize that taking a long bike ride could be so rewarding. Here are a few of the takeaways from the ride:
* Set a goal…any goal… (It doesn’t have to be expensive) and give yourself the pleasure of working towards accomplishing it. It will broaden your horizon;
* Get out of your daily routine. It’s stimulating;
* Have something fun to look forward to. It nourishes the soul;
* Go someplace you’ve never been. It gives you fresh eyes.
* Prepare and train. It’s half the fun of what you’re getting ready to do;
* Do things with other people. We’re designed for relationships;
* The road isn’t always downhill. Sometimes it’s flat and sometimes it’s steep;
* Scan your horizon. Like looking up the hill, it can give you perspective;
* Keep your head down most of the time. It will help with focusing;
* ‘Flat tires’ happen in cycling and life. Be prepared to make the change;
* “Fuel up” when necessary. Find out what gives you energy, then take the time to fuel up. It will keep you going;
* Cherish the ride. Life isn’t a drill;
* Find and enjoy the beauty around you. It’s an attitude that you choose;
* Cross a finish line. Completing something you started has great rewards;
* Be thankful. We all have something to be thankful for. Express your thanks through kindness and love towards other people;
* Encourage someone else. Be like the ‘finish line gallery’ and actually cheer someone on. Encouragement is such a powerful and positive act;
* Take time to reflect. Sometimes looking back can enable you to look ahead;
* Look ahead. Beginning with the end in mind can help you stay on course.
Wednesday, September 29th, 2010
LATEST CASE SHILLER REPORT SHOWS SEATTLE HOME PRICES STILL SHOWING MODEST DECLINES
Seattle trails only Las Vegas, Charlotte, Tampa and Chicago in greatest year over year price declines through July 2010 according to recent Case Shiller Home Price Index for the 20 metro US markets. The survey was released September 28th, 2010.
For year over year price statistics from July ’09 to July ’10, Seattle home prices fell an average of 1.6%. Las Vegas continued its slump with the worst year over year decline of 4.9%. San Francisco and San Diego lead the survey with year over year gains of 11.2% and 9.3% respectively.
Click here to read the entire article.
